As if we needed another reason to doubt and hate analysts it now appears that these so called experts are saying that Apple will regret the iPad and that the iPad is killing the netbook. I’m sick of analysts and the people that present their reports as foregone conclusions.
From the regret article:
Rather than killing off the netbook, the Ipad is harming sales of the Ipod and Macbooks. It seems the buyers of Ipads would normally have got a more expensive Macbook or an Ipod Touch and apparently are clever enough not to do both.
Let’s start with the obvious factual error. The most expensive iPod Touch is $400 while the least expensive iPad is $500. So there’s a problem that brings doubt to the quality of everything else. (Or is that poorly written or am I reading it wrong. But I don’t understand why buying an iPad instead of any iPod Touch would be bad even if it is happening.)
Apple has always been good about maintaining margins so I’m willing to accept that the more expensive models are more profitable for Apple in pure dollars.
Still I doubt Apple sacrifices much on iPad margins. This is a company that has been removing cables, cases and other accessories in order to maintain margins so they pay attention to those things. I have to believe tha accountants at Apple would prefer I buy and iPad over and iPod if I was buying only one.
But Apple regret the netbook? I doubt it, and it’s that sort of thinking that makes me worry about a business and wouldn’t even think about investing in a business that had this mindset. One thing I’ve always admired about Apple as a company is the way they control their product cycle and stay ahead of the competition. If they came out with the iPad, iPhone and iPod Touch all at once then there might be an argument to be made. But on the iPhone/iPod Touch side theirs competition beginning to appear. Rather then rest of the App store and marketing to get people to keep buying their products in vast quantities they’ve extended their product line. The iPad can be seen as a new product yet it leverages the existing ecosystem that will give it a solid user base before the competition appears. And when the competition starts to appear Apple will add features and eventually move on to something else.
Is the iPad stealing some iPod Touch sales or even laptop sales? I imagine so there’s been a few. If it stole from iPod Touch sales then that is probably OK since as I said, those devices are cheaper. Seems to me if someone went to an iPad instead of a Apple laptop then that person was either considering cheaper Windows PCs or was a Mac die hard. There’s not enough die hards out there so sustain a company Apple’s size so I don’t see any regrets there.
The bottom line is Apple’s bottom line, and my analysis is that their bottom line will continue to grow. As for the iPad killing netbook sales…
Netbook growth had been at 641% year over year. How long can that be maintained? I’ve had a netbook for over a year now. I’m not looking to replace it since it does what I want. If it died I would replace it with either another netbook or a inexpensive laptop even though I already have an iPad. But the netbook is no a device people outgrow except to move to a full feature laptop. It’s second computer and one that browsed and did email a year ago still does it today. It didn’t run Photoshop a year ago so it doesn’t need to be upgraded for the new Photoshop.
But if you asked me in February if I was going to buy an iPad I would have said yes. If you then asked if I was considering a netbook I would have said no. Trying to make the first question the cause of the second answer is a mistake.
I certainly hope the slate/tablet market takes off so there’s competition and choice. If it does then the netbook may be doomed. But the same companies that make netbooks will be making slates/tablets.
Disclosure: I’ve own one iPad or another from back in the days when I had to buy the Windows specific version. I now own a 64GB iPod Touch and a 16GB Wi-Fi iPad. I guess I wasn’t one of those clever people the analysts were talking about. Still, I never have trouble figuring out when my iPad is appropriate to use and when my netbook is appropriate to use.
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